Ka Whakaoho te Mana Rorohiko AI i te Hiahia o te Mākete; Kua Piki ake ngā Utu muka whatu G652D G657A2 ki te Wāhi Tino Pai

Mai i te tīmatanga o te tau 2026, kua kite te mākete muka whatu i tētahi pikinga onge o ngā utu. Kua tere te pikinga o te utu o te muka whatu aratau-kotahi G.652.D matua mai i te 3USD mō ia kiromita matua i te mutunga o te tau 2025 ki te 7.5USD mō ia kiromita matua. Kua eke ngā utu tuku iho i roto i ētahi hongere tohatoha ki te tohu 7.5USD—ko ētahi i hipa atu i te12USD mō ia kiromita matuapaepae—te whakatakoto i tētahi taumata teitei hou mō te pikinga utu ā-tau e whitu. I te wā kotahi, kua piki ake ngā utu mō ngā muka motuhake kounga teitei pērā i a G.657.A2 me G.654.E.

I kī mai ētahi o ngā tāngata o roto i te umanga i uiuitia mō te take nei, ko tēnei pikinga utu i ahu mai i te pikinga nui o te tono i ahu mai i ngā pūtake maha: te hanganga rorohiko AI, te kaupapa "Eastern Data, Western Computing", me te whānuitanga o te whatunga 5G. Ka nui ake te pikinga o te tono nā ngā here pakari ki te kaha whakaputa muka whatu me te iti o ngā rauemi mata o runga, ka hanga he taurite kore i waenga i te tuku me te tono. Nā ēnei āhuatanga i akiaki, kua kaha tonu ngā utu hea o ngā kamupene kua whakarārangihia he hea-A i roto i ngā mekameka umanga muka whatu, taura, me ngā whakawhitiwhitinga whatu. Kei te ripoata ngā umanga matua i ngā pukapuka ota katoa me ngā whakahoutanga piki ki ā rātou matapae whiwhinga moni, e tohu ana kei te tae te umanga ki tētahi pūwāhi huringa nui—te whakawhiti mai i tētahi wāhanga o ngā pakanga utu ki tētahi wāhanga o te whakaora hua.

**Kua Whai Mana Katoa te Pikinga Utu o te Muka Whatu**

Hei "pūnaha io" o te hanganga matihiko, ko te muka whatu te reo matua mō te tuku i te mana rorohiko AI, te whakahaere i ngā whakawhitiwhitinga 5G, te hono i ngā pokapū raraunga, me te tautoko i te kaupapa "Raraunga Rawhiti, Rorohiko Uru". Ko tōna mahi me tana tuku ka whakatau tika i te tere me te kounga o te whanaketanga o te ōhanga matihiko.

I tīmata te ngaru pikinga utu muka whatu o nāianei i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2025, ā, i piki haere tonu i te marama o Hānuere me Pēpuere o te tau 2026. Ehara i te mea he pikinga utu ā-rohe noa iho tēnei e pā ana ki ngā whakaritenga motuhake, engari he pikinga utu whānui e kapi ana i ngā kāwai hua katoa me ngā hongere tohatoha.

Ina koa, e whakaatu ana ngā raraunga mai i te CRU ko te utu mākete toharite mō te muka aratau-kotahi G.652.D—te momo e whakamahia whānuitia ana i roto i te rāngai whakawhitiwhiti kōrero—i piki ake i raro i te 20 yuan mō ia kiromita matua i te Whiringa-ā-rangi 2025 ki waenga i te 40 me te 50 yuan mō ia kiromita matua i te Hui-tanguru 2026. Neke atu i te 75% te pikinga mōrahi o ia marama, ā, i rua te pikinga o ngā utu i roto i ngā marama e toru noa iho.

Mai i te tirohanga hokohoko, ko te pikinga utu i te wā kotahi i roto i ngā tono hokohoko pokapū e arahina ana e ngā kaikawe e whakamana ana i te pono me te pumau o tēnei rauna pikinga utu o nāianei.

Ko te whānui haere o te āputa i waenga i te tuku me te tono te mea matua e tautoko ana i tēnei ia pikinga o ngā utu. E kī ana a Guotai Haitong Securities, i roto i te papamuri o te pikinga nui o te huringa i roto i te rāngai muka whatu, kua whakaūhia te ia pikinga utu puta noa i te umanga. Whai muri i te pa ki te pēhanga heke i te haurua tuatahi o te tau kua hipa, ka hoki anō ngā utu mō te muka whatu wetewete i te haurua tuarua; i akiakihia tēnei whakaoranga e te pikinga nui o te tono ki tāwāhi mō te muka G.657.A2, i puta ai he nekehanga i roto i te kaha whakaputa. I te nekehanga o te kaha mai i te muka G.652.D—nā reira i heke ai te tuku me te roa haere o ngā wā arahi—kua piki tonu ngā utu mō te muka wetewete i ngā wā tata nei.

**He Ia Au e Haere Tonu Ana Mō Tetahi Wā**

Ehara i te mea he pikinga mākete poto noa iho te pikinga tonu o ngā utu muka whatu i tēnei wā, nā te whakaaro noa iho; engari, he hua tēnei o te taunekeneke a ngā āhuatanga maha, tae atu ki te kore e taurite te tuku me te tono, ngā hanganga utu pakari, me te whakapai ake i te āhua o te ahumahi.

I roto i ēnei āhuatanga, ko te tipu tere o te taha tono—me ngā here pakari o te taha tuku—te tino take matua. Mai i te tirohanga o te tono, ko te hanganga tere o te hanganga rorohiko AI kua puta hei tino take e whakakaha ana i te tono mō te muka whatu.

I te whakatinanatanga nui o te AI whakaputa me ngā tauira reo nui, ka tere haere tonu te hanga i ngā pokapū raraunga AI tauine-rahi. E toru ki te rima ngā wā ka pau te muka whatu i tētahi pokapū raraunga AI tauine-rahi kotahi, ki te whakaritea ki tētahi pokapū raraunga tuku iho; nō reira, kei te piki haere te hiahia mō te muka tere-iti te ngaronga—he mea nui mō ngā hononga ā-roto me te tuku tawhiti-taupoki-ki-taupoki.

Ko ngā huringa muka whatu o mua i te nuinga o te wā i peia e te whakawhānui ake i te whānui whānui, i te whakatinanatanga rānei o te teihana turanga 5G e ngā kaiwhakahaere waea—ko ngā mahi matua e aro ana ki te aro ki te take matua o "te hononga kei te noho." Heoi, ko te huringa o nāianei e peia ana e te hiahia ki te tautoko i ngā tono rorohiko auau-tiketike o ngā tauira AI nui—ina koa, te aro ki te wero o te "kawe mana rorohiko." Ko tēnei nekehanga o te tono—te neke mai i te paparanga urunga kaiwhakamahi mutunga ki ngā rūma taputapu matua me ngā Hononga Pokapū Raraunga (DCI)—kua tino whakarerekē i ngā whakaritenga mō ngā muka whatu motuhake mahi-teitei, iti-ngaronga.

I taua wā anō, ko te haere tonu o te whanaketanga hōhonu o te kapinga 5G me te whakatinanatanga o ngā whatunga 6G ki mua kei te piki haere tonu te hiahia mō te muka whatu. Kua tino piki ake te hiahia mō te maha o ngā matua muka i roto i ngā whatunga fronthaul me midhaul o ngā teihana turanga 5G; i tua atu, ko ngā kaupapa pēnei i te whakaora i ngā taiwhenua me te whanaketanga o "Ngā Tāone Gigabit" kei te akiaki i te whakapai ake i ngā whatunga muka-ki-te-Kāinga (FTTH) ki ngā tere 10-Gigabit, kia mau tonu ai te tipu o te hiahia i roto i te rāngai whakawhitiwhiti kōrero tuku iho.

Heoi anō, ko te tere o te whanaketanga o ngā āhuatanga tono hou—pērā i te Ipurangi Ahumahi, ngā muka whatu motuka, me ngā whakawhitiwhiti kōrero rererangi—kua whakawhānui ake i te kaha mō te tipu haere o te tono muka whatu. Nā tēnei whanaketanga kua hurihia te hanganga tono o te umanga: mai i te whakawhirinaki takitahi ki te hoko pokapū e ngā kaiwhakahaere waea, kei te neke atu ki tētahi whenua tono kanorau ake, teitei ake hoki.

Ko te āhuatanga matua o te ngaru pikinga utu muka whatu o nāianei ko te pikinga utu *hanganga*, e akiakihia ana e te taha tono. Nā te hanganga o ngā hanganga rorohiko AI me ngā kaupapa pēnei i te kaupapa "Raraunga Rawhiti, Rorohiko Uru" i puta ai te pikinga nui o te tono mō ngā muka whatu; i te wā kotahi, kua tino piki ake te tono mō ngā waka rererangi muka whatu FPV hōia. Heoi, i te taha tuku, nā ngā herenga ki te kaha whakaputa o ngā preforms muka whatu (preform rods) i uaua ai te urupare tere ki tēnei pikinga. Nā tēnei taupatupatu i waenga i te tuku me te tono kua hua ake he pikinga tere, poto noa iho o ngā utu. Kāore i rite ki ngā wā o mua—i reira ko ngā pikinga utu i akiakihia e te hoko pokapū a ngā kaiwhakahaere waea me ētahi atu puna tono tuku iho, ā, he poto noa iho ngā huringa pikinga utu—ko te pikinga o nāianei kei te whakahaerehia e te AI me ētahi atu rāngai hou. E tohu ana i te huringa hanganga roa e puta ana i waenganui i te huringa nui o te ahumahi; ko te tipu o te tono e tohuhia ana e te pumau me te tauine, kaua ko te hua noa iho o te whakapae poto.

Ko te take matua o tēnei pikinga utu ko te aukati i te kaha o te muka whatu. I roto i te mekameka ahumahi muka whatu, ko ngā muka whatu te rohe o runga o te tuku; ko tēnei wāhanga he arai hangarau teitei, he roa ngā huringa whakawhānui kaha, me ngā whakaritenga whakapaipai nui, e uaua ai te tuku ki te whai i te tipu o te tono. Ki te titiro whakamua, ki te āta wetekina te kaha whakaputa muka whatu mā te whakatinanatanga o ngā taputapu hou me ngā whanaketanga hangarau, tera pea ka māmā ake te kore taurite o te tuku me te tono, ā, ka āta hoki ngā utu muka whatu ki tētahi awhe whaitake. Heoi, ki te nui ake te whanaketanga o te AI me ētahi atu rāngai i ngā tumanakohanga—e akiaki ana i te tipu nui tonu o te tono—ahakoa te korenga o te whānui o te kaha o te muka whatu i ngā matapae, tera pea ka noho tonu ngā utu ki ngā taumata teitei, ka piki tonu rānei i waenga i ngā piki me ngā heke.

I roto i te tukanga whakaputa muka whatu, ko te preform muka whatu (te tokotoko preform) te wāhanga matua. E 60% ki te 70% o te utu whakaputa katoa, ā, ko te wāhanga he nui rawa ngā arai hangarau me ngā whakaritenga haumitanga nui rawa atu. Heoi anō, he roa te huringa hanga mō tētahi raina whakaputa preform kotahi, ā, ko te tikanga he 18 ki te 24 marama te roa—he tukanga roa e kapi ana i ngā mea katoa mai i te whakaae kaupapa, te hoko taputapu, te tāutanga, me te tono tae noa ki te whakanui whakamutunga i te kaha whakaputa.

Mai i te tau 2019 ki te tau 2024, i raru te umanga muka whatu i roto i tētahi pakanga utu roa i tino whakaiti i ngā hua o ngā kamupene. Nō reira, i whakatau te nuinga o ngā umanga ki te whakaiti i ā rātou whakapaunga whakapaipai, ā, i hua ake he tino iti te tāpiritanga ki te kaha whakaputa i mua i tēnei wā.

Ahakoa rā, e whakapono ana ngā kaitōrangapū o te umanga, kāore pea tēnei pikinga onge o ngā utu muka whatu e memeha haere i roto i ngā wā e tata mai nei.

Ko te pikinga o te utu o ngā muka whatu e whakaata ana i te korenga o ngā rauemi matua e tautoko ana i te ōhanga matihiko. Ahakoa ka tukuna pea tēnei pēhanga utu ki ngā kaiwhakahaere waea, he nui ake te tūponotanga ka uru ki roto i te utu whānui e pā ana ki te whanaketanga hanganga AI. I te mea kei te haere tonu te whakataetae ā-ao mō te mana rorohiko AI, kāore e taea te whakatau ngāwari i tēnei korenga hanganga—e ahu mai ana i ngā whakahoutanga hangarau—i roto i te wā poto mā te whakanui ake i te kaha whakaputa o nāianei. Ko te hiahia nui o ngā pokapū rorohiko atamai mō te whānui-rahi me te tuku iti-roa kua whakanoho i a rātou hei miihini matua e akiaki ana i te tipu o te tono muka whatu, nā reira ka huri anō i te hihiri tono o te umanga muka. Ki te whakatauritea ki ngā pokapū raraunga tuku iho, ko ngā whakaritenga muka whatu o tētahi pokapū rorohiko atamai kotahi ka maha atu—neke atu rānei i te tekau—ngā wā nui ake; hei tauira, ko tētahi rōpū GPU noa e 10,000 ngā kāri, e hiahia ana ki ngā tekau mano kiromita muka-matua mō ngā hononga tūmau ā-roto anake. Ko te wāhanga o te tono muka whatu e pā ana ki ngā pokapū raraunga ā-roto me ngā horopaki DCI (Data Center Interconnect) e matapaetia ana ka piki ake mai i te iti iho i te5% i te tau 2024 ki te 35% i te tau 2027.